Ten years following the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that split the nation and caused disorder, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the political, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unification has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in universities but scarcely any politicians or campaigners want to engage with the basics. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author supports unity or the current situation. They composes two pieces that seek objectivity in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and social figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments range over national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they favour unity but oppose increased taxation or adopting a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his generation is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent official who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid points, he commented. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will eventually be defeated but each side has has something to gain from the alternative positions."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
