Morgan Rogers' Golden Spell Drives Aston Villa's Improbable Title Charge
It was eight weeks ago that the young forward found himself on the pitch at Sunderland, appearing bewildered while his coach admonished him for not reading a through-ball. During that period, as Villa went six without a win, the question was whether his performances were an indicator or a cause of the side's broader struggles.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
In the latest match, though, the touchline reaction was decidedly more positive. After the England international swept in his brace-sealing goal to restore his side's advantage, Emery discarded his winter coat, spread his arms and roared. Villa were on their way to a 10th successive win , despite not winning their initial half-dozen fixtures, now sit only three points adrift of pace-setters Arsenal.
Are They Legitimate Title Contenders?
This is a rather hard question to address. The historical record, a general sense of the club, argues against it. Additionally, they have not been completely commanding in many games, while the victories have stacked up.
Per Opta, on just two occasions has the team posted an xG significantly higher than the opposition. For a side which has just won a ten-match winning streak, they appear weirdly vulnerable – yet at the moment the margins are going in their favour.
The Reliant Strategy
Their recent policy seems to be to engage in a shootout with the opposition before hoping Rogers to rescue them with two crisp finishes. It happened against Leeds, it occurred against West Ham, and once more when facing Manchester United.
His opener came from an exquisite effort, arced just inside the goal frame from the edge of the area. For his second was essentially a slightly less clean iteration of his first capitalizing on a pass from Watkins.
“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”
Is It Sustainable?
Reason suggests otherwise. In the recent win, the opponents had a greater number of attempts and more shots on target. Villa have won each of their last eight by a single goal. They have allowed goals in all except one of those fixtures.
Regression to the mean may well be the most significant challenge Villa must confront over the coming weeks. Rogers, surely, will not continue to thrashing his shots past despairing goalkeepers forever.
A Case for Belief
Maybe there exists another reality whereby, instead of luck running out, the level of play rises to match the results. Important figures might still find their top level.
- The main striker might resume scoring again.
- The winger may rediscover the force he was at Borussia Dortmund.
- The defensive duo are due to come back from the treatment room, strengthening a sometimes shaky defence.
Maybe within that lies the seeds of a title challenge, however, it is improbable cannot keep relying on one man.
Enjoying the Ride
But then, this is a surprise. It seemed improbable the team would occupy in the top three for the holidays. And certainly two months ago, no one envisioned the midfielder by the end of the year would be leading a championship pursuit and appearing as an essential player for the national team.
This remarkable period must be cherished exactly since it feels so unlikely. As the hero faced the home supporters when the game ended conducting the cheers, it was clear to be relishing every moment. A feeling he has rightly earned. These spells are uncommon in the sport and should be relished.