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Ordinarily, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year honor adheres to a simple script. It frequently serves as a form of mea culpa. Sorry we underestimated your squad in our pre-campaign projections.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the skipper who oversaw the largest resurgence is handed the award. In practice, it sparks an annual discussion about expectations and whether we're actually honoring excellent leadership or just the greatest upset.

But the latest competition is fundamentally unique. The group of nominees is unusually talented. It has been the campaign of turnarounds. The NFL has been unpredictable, with reigning conference champions falling away and recent also-rans improving in unison. In an normal season, Sean Payton guiding the his team to the top of the conference would make him the clear front-runner. Yet in such a wild and thrilling season, he's up against five other exceptional coaches.

Here is how the projected ballot ought to be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Coach of the Year voters love signal-callers. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you transform a franchise QB, you're halfway home.

Ben Johnson didn't merely fixed his young quarterback; he's freed him. Within an ideal environment, the QB has been given the chance to display his special talent. From Week 9, the Chicago offense rank fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's prolonged excellence. With his guidance, the quarterback has become more confident, far less reckless, and has willingly submitted to the gameplan instead of freelancing. It is an offense built solely in Johnson's vision: a physical run game, a steady helping of play-action and a imaginative passing attack that creates wide receiver targets everywhere. The QB has capitalized. And when clear throws haven't been there, he's been capable to create magic from broken plays.

Johnson came to the Bears with a clear offensive vision. Virtually each gamble – overhauling the trenches, utilizing the pass-catchers, transforming Williams into a rhythm passer – has paid off. This is rare for a rookie head coach. And it's rarer yet for a coach who entered the organization with the level of pressure Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the hottest name on the head coaching market. However when it comes to selecting a leader, there are zero sure things. Somehow, Johnson has met expectations – and even exceeded them. He's proven not just to be a offensive wizard but the type of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

During a ordinary year, he would be the overwhelming choice. But the current isn't a typical campaign!

The area where his case runs a bit into trouble is on defense. The Bears currently rank 25th in defensive success rate. They are living on takeaways, and turnovers are notoriously unreliable. Coaches can emphasise ball disruption, but nobody can ensure it. He is on the ballot because the offense is legitimate. He's ranked lower because variance is doing an outsized share of the defense's heavy lifting. If not for a couple bounces of the ball, the Bears would be two wins worse off. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the core is established for long-term winning. However he falls just short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable spot to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie leader who has orchestrated a dramatic turnaround. During the crucial final weeks of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest all-around ball of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defense that now ranks number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more impressively, he has excelled at the off-field stuff, which was not a guarantee following his early public appearances and some of his preseason decisions.

The coach walked into Jacksonville with an exceptionally raw coaching staff. In contrast to Johnson, who packed themselves with the ideal coaching mix of youth and veteran savvy, Coen hired newbies. Starting with the head coach on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with rookies. That kind of setup is exciting in theory, but frequently fails in reality – with other teams are a warning – because everyone is figuring out a their job in real-time. Yet Coen has managed to bring everyone and everything into sync.

After an early strong start, there was a risk that the season would go off the track. A midseason setback caused the Jags stumbling again. That's usually when leaders panic and change too much. Coen did not. Rather, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped pursuing explosive plays and started seeking consistent ones. Coen refocused the offense around key players and the running game, and asked his QB to use his legs more.

The outcomes are evident. The Jaguars have won seven games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 seed. Coen gets the tiniest knock in the standings because he inherited a skilled roster, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Each Strong of the Year case has a pivotal decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB move.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a different signal-caller and partnering him with an new play-caller could have ended the season in the early weeks. Rather, it defined it. By the mid point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP front-runner. He has cooled off after that time, dropping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the latter part of the schedule, placing him just a single spot ahead of other QBs.

Still